Beyond Stop-Outs, Part Two: The Future of Post-Traditional Adult Learner Recruitment

Shifting to Intent-Based Recruitment

In Part 1, we explored why relying on stop-out lists isn’t enough to address the compounding challenges from the attainment crisis. Stop-outs matter — they represent millions of adults who started college but didn’t finish. They deserve our support. However, according to Strada Education Network, more than half of working-age adults are interested in education or training—but many of these adults have not been engaged or recruited.

If higher education is serious about moving the attainment needle, we must broaden our view—and deepen our understanding—of these populations.

The Overlooked Opportunity: NCND Adults

We know the SCND population. We can count them, thanks to the National Student Clearinghouse, and they feel familiar because the 43 million SCND students once sat in our classrooms.

But there are more than 60 million adults who have never enrolled in postsecondary education at all (NCND). Many of their barriers are likely different—and these need to be studied so that they can be addressed. Furthermore, this population has been largely left out of policy conversations.

Unlike stop-outs though, there’s no list with their names and numbers sitting on a registrar’s desk. If we ignore them, we leave the largest segment of prospective adult learners untapped.

Intent, Not History, Should Drive Adult Learner Strategy

The SCND focus is too narrow to solve today’s enrollment cliff. Compounding that problem: national survey data show that only 25% of stop-outs intend to re-enroll in the next two years. That means three out of four people on those lists aren’t actually prospects—no matter the volume of calls, postcards, or emails. More often than not, outreach built on those lists is neither scalable nor efficient.

There is a path forward, though. Instead of running campaigns with lookalike audiences or stop-out lists, it is possible to identify who has intent to enroll. Predictive data and person-level intent modeling show us who and why.

Whether they are SCND or NCND, adults with Intent to Enroll are the ones most likely to engage and respond to outreach.

And, that’s exactly what our partners across the country, like Dutchess Community College, are now doing. In their primary service area, they have 60,000 SCND adults, and they also have 29,000 adults who completed high school but have not yet attempted a higher ed pathway.

“The future of our regional workforce is dependent on the impact we make with these learners,” said Brian Sondey, Dutchess Community College Assistant VP of Enrollment and Student Success. “Intent plus data are the roadmap for us to find them and drive enrollment in a meaningful, effective way.” 

Today, adult learners now account for nearly 25% of their total enrollment. Sondey concluded that “[the outcome] simply would not have been possible without CollegeAPP’s data-driven approach.”

Predictive modeling and focused outreach is moving the needle there and across our community of practice. 

Precision Works

This shift mirrors what we’ve already experienced in consumer marketing: targeted strategies have replaced broad demographic buys. Precision and personalization converts consumers. It converts prospective students, too. 

Building an audience that considers enrollment intent—instead of just prior experience—focuses the audience size and makes the most of limited resources.

It’s also fair to say that higher ed has less resources. We can no longer afford to use scarce dollars on cold prospective student outreach, especially when there is no predicted intent to enroll.

A CollegeAPP campaign would include both SCND and NCND adults, but only those with likely intent to enroll. Take Denver Metro as an example:

• ~700,000 adults have some postsecondary experience but less than a bachelor’s degree.

• ~400,000 adults have never enrolled.

• Together, that’s a 1.1 million–person haystack.

Blanket outreach to all 1.1M would likely be cost-prohibitive, impersonal, and ineffective. However, with predictive intent modeling, the list narrows to about 300,000 high-intent adults — ensuring a feasible and cost-effective audience of SCND and NCND. From there, imagine quickly segmenting based on personal motivations, program interest, modality preferences, and more. Previously, this level of segmentation would have required an RFI submission, A/B testing, and more.

By combining up-to-date data, appended contact records, and predictive models, institutions can strategically engage both SCND and NCND adults who are ready to take the next step.

→ If you’d like to see what this looks like for your service area or community, let’s connect.

A New Approach for Adult Learner Recruitment

Most of today’s recruitment strategies over-invest in low-intent SCND adults (the stop-out list). The real opportunity, however, lies in a specific cohort. Consider the top row of the matrix: high-intent SCND and NCND adults. These are the individuals most ready to engage if the right supports are in place.

Intent-Based Recruitment

Think of adult learners in these dimensions: Prior Postsecondary Experience (SCND vs. NCND) and Intent to Enroll (high vs. low).

By shifting to an intent-based recruitment framework, higher ed can address enrollment outcomes in spite of their limited resources.

(Note: This framework does not include prospective post-graduate students, but we’ll cover that in a future article.)

Policy and Practice Implications

If the goal is to move the attainment needle, state and institutional leaders must stop treating adult learners as synonymous with stop-outs. That means:

• Redefine “adult learner.” Stop using SCND as a proxy for the whole population. Expand investment and policy frameworks to include NCND adults with tailored pathways.

• Prioritize intent-based outreach. Invest in approaches that can identify adults with real enrollment intent, rather than recycling outdated stop-out lists.

• Measure differently. Track progress not just by “students returned” but by new adults reached and enrolled.

The Path Forward

Mitigating the impact of the attainment crisis isn’t just about winning back students who left. Looking back at what happened before isn’t enough anymore. It demands that we look forward — reaching the millions of adults who haven’t yet started their journey and leveraging the signals that tell us who is ready now.

It gives us a chance to stabilize enrollment and unlock opportunities for millions of Americans eager to take their next step. It also has the benefit of being the right thing to do.