National survey data show that 75% of those on stop-out lists don’t intend to enroll within the next two years. That means they aren’t actually prospects—no matter the volume of calls, postcards, or emails.

There is a path forward, though. Instead of running campaigns with lookalike audiences or stop-out lists, it is possible to identify who has intent to enroll. By shifting to an intent-first recruitment framework, higher ed can address enrollment outcomes in spite of their limited resources.