Beyond Stop-Outs: The Future of Post-Traditional Adult Learner Recruitment, Part One
Why Stop-Out Lists Alone Can’t Solve the Enrollment Cliff
As the attainment agenda took hold across the country, state policymakers and higher education leaders quickly realized getting more post-traditional, adult learners to earn degrees was critical for state and national goals. Even before the forecasted enrollment cliff that finally began this year, the need to serve adult learners was clear.
However, efforts to increase postsecondary attainment have disproportionately focused policy, programming, and outreach on the “some college, no degree” (SCND) population, largely ignoring adults with no prior postsecondary experience.
For nearly a decade, state and institutional efforts to raise degree attainment have focused on one group: adults with some college, no degree (SCND) or stop-outs. This population is both in need of support and sizable—now up to 43.1 million Americans, according to the most recent National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) report.
The logic was simple:
These learners were “low-hanging fruit,” already familiar with the college or university, and presumably, easier to enroll. The barriers related to past higher ed attempts could be understood, assessed, and addressed.
It’s well-intended work, and as a result, more students have enrolled across the US. The exclusive focus on SCND adults as a proxy for all adult learners has been a net positive for schools and students alike. But the reality is more complex.
When outreach focuses on stop-out lists, higher ed misses the broader picture and enrollment targets.
What The Data Say
Research shows that returning adults face significant barriers, many of whom represent historically underserved populations. Additionally, there is a disproportionate impact on students of color, first-generation learners, and those from low socioeconomic backgrounds. We know these students need comprehensive support and services to persist—and complete.
The good news is that there are now a number of excellent projects and programs to designed meet the needs of SCND adults and help them succeed this time around. These include, but are certainly not limited to, Ithaka S&R’s “Stranded Credits” work, institutional programs like the University of Memphis’ Finish Line and Wayne State University’s Warrior Way Back program, and statewide scholarship programs like Michigan Reconnect.
Yet, outreach and recruitment strategies have lagged behind. Enrollment marketing has maintained an outsized focus on stop-out lists—an institution’s roster of former students who left without a credential. These students are perceived to be “low-hanging fruit” from an enrollment perspective. However, the stop-out list focus has three significant factors that impact (and limit) outcomes:
Diminishing Accuracy: Contact info on stop-out lists degrades quickly as people move, change numbers, or abandon old email accounts.
Low Intent to Return: Research shows that only 25% of SCND adults plan to re-enroll within two years—meaning three out of 4 prospective learners won’t return anytime soon.
Narrow Scope: Stop-out lists ignore the 60 million adults with no college experience (NCND) who could also benefit from postsecondary education.
In a national survey of 150,000 potential adult students, data shows that 75% of stop-out students don’t intend to return. In other words, focusing on stop-out students isn’t enough improve enrollment outcomes. Higher education leaders need to consider a different cohort of prospective adult students.
Similar to the policy and program improvements that are now in place for SCND adults, thoughtful and intentional efforts should be undertaken to assess, understand, and then address the barriers for all post-traditional, adult learners. And even more specifically, higher ed should take a closer look at the 60 million adults with no prior postsecondary experience (No College, No Degree, or NCND). They will likely face distinct challenges in enrollment and require different, tailored supports and services. But we should not count them out, especially when research signals their interest and intent.
Where We Go From Here
The demographic cliff isn’t going away, and higher education leaders need to mitigate the enrollment decline in new ways. If necessity is the mother of invention, then adult learners can be the engine of higher education’s reinvention. And, we must remember that adult learners represent more than just stop-outs or those with prior college experience (SCND).
Stop-out lists are necessary but increasingly insufficient to deliver improved enrollment outcomes. They overlook the vast majority of prospective adult learners—and they limit institutions to chasing former students who may never return.
Learn More
In Part II of this series, we’ll explore these populations and strategies to improve outcomes for both institutions and (prospective) post-traditional students. To learn more about how CollegeAPP can support your institution’s mission, please contact us.
